| Indicator | Value | 30D Trend | Signal | Score | Rule Fired |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOPR (7D MA) | 0.966 | Capitulation / realized losses | -1 | sopr_ma < 0.98 | |
| RHODL Ratio (7D MA) | 599 | Long-horizon accumulation zone | +1 | rhodl_ma < 800 | |
| Exchange Flow (7D Sum) | +5,018 | Balanced exchange pressure | +0 | -8,000 <= 7D net flow <= +8,000 | |
| LTH/STH Rotation | -0.43% | Holder rotation is neutral | +0 | -0.6% <= lth_ma - sth_ma <= +0.6% | |
| Miner Behaviour (Puell 7D) | 0.594 | Miner revenue stress / undervaluation | +1 | puell_ma < 0.6 |
| Indicator | Reading | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| US10Y Yields | Tightening | −1 |
| Macro Liquidity | Constrained | 0 |
| Indicator | Reading | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| BTC ETF Flow Proxy | ETF Bid Supportive | +1 |
| BTC Dominance | 54% (stable) | 0 |
| Market State | Count | % of Period |
|---|---|---|
| MILD BULLISH | 19 | 76% |
| NEUTRAL / SIDEWAYS | 3 | 12% |
| BULLISH TREND | 3 | 12% |
| State | Samples | Mean 7D Ret | Median |
|---|---|---|---|
| BULLISH TREND | 3 | +0.30% | −2.51% |
| MILD BULLISH | 14 | +2.82% | +2.52% |
| NEUTRAL | 1 | +0.43% | +0.43% |
| Period | Regime | Similarity | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 Bear Recovery | Early Risk-On |
81.2%
|
Post-capitulation recovery improving on-chain structure before broad liquidity confirmation. |
| 2024 ETF Regime | BTC-Led Risk-On |
71.9%
|
ETF-led demand and BTC dominance mattered more than broad alt rotation. |
| 2020 QE Expansion | Risk-On |
63.1%
|
Macro liquidity impulse dominated; risk assets benefited from easing financial conditions. |
| 2021 Alt Season | Alt Risk-On |
46.9%
|
Broad capital rotation and strong narratives outperformed BTC-led exposure. |
| 2022 Liquidity Collapse | Risk-Off |
16.1%
|
Tightening liquidity, negative capital flow, weak narratives, deteriorating on-chain structure. |
| Date | Score | Market State | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | +0 | NEUTRAL / SIDEWAYS | LOW |
| 2026-05-31 | +0 | NEUTRAL / SIDEWAYS | LOW |
| 2026-06-01 | +0 | NEUTRAL / SIDEWAYS | LOW |
| 2026-06-02 | +0 | NEUTRAL / SIDEWAYS | LOW |
| 2026-06-03 | +0 | NEUTRAL / SIDEWAYS | LOW |
| 2026-06-04 | -1 | CAUTION / MILD BEARISH | LOW |
| 2026-06-05 | -1 | CAUTION / MILD BEARISH | LOW |
| 2026-06-06 | -1 | CAUTION / MILD BEARISH | LOW |
| 2026-06-07 | -1 | CAUTION / MILD BEARISH | LOW |
| 2026-06-08 | -1 | CAUTION / MILD BEARISH | LOW |
| 2026-06-09 | +1 | MILD BULLISH | LOW |
| 2026-06-10 | +0 | NEUTRAL / SIDEWAYS | LOW |
| 2026-06-11 | +1 | MILD BULLISH | LOW |
| 2026-06-12 | +1 | MILD BULLISH | LOW |
| Area | Method |
|---|---|
| Layer scoring | Each live indicator votes −1, 0, or +1. Layer score is normalized by available max score so missing sources reduce coverage but do not fabricate a signal. |
| Historical similarity | Current macro, capital-flow, on-chain, and narrative layer vector compared with historical regime templates using Euclidean distance. |
| Regime probabilities | Heuristic scenario scores derived from layer ratios, BTC dominance behavior, narrative strength, and on-chain confirmation. |
| Confidence scoring | Blends indicator alignment, historical similarity, volatility regime, and data coverage. |
| Proxy assumptions | Public-data proxies used when institutional-grade datasets are unavailable: Dune-derived SOPR/RHODL, ETF signed dollar volume, exchange reserve pressure. |